The release of ex-Commerce Minister Boonsong Teriyapirom has fueled speculation about Yingluck Shinawatra’s return to Thailand in 2025. Boonsong, jailed for his role in the disastrous rice-pledging scheme, was paroled, clearing the way for Yingluck’s return.

The release of a former Minister of Commerce, jailed for decades by the courts in 2017 for malfeasance over the rice-pledging scheme, has raised the anticipation of the return of former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. On Monday, Yingluck’s Minister of Commerce, Boonsong Teriyapirom, previously sentenced to 48 years in jail, was released on parole. Mr. Boonsong oversaw the notorious rice-pledging scheme, which cost the kingdom at least ฿500 billion from 2011 to 2014. The release this week means that presently all jailed players in the infamous scheme have been released from prison.

release-of-former-commerce-minister-clears-the-way-for-the-return-in-2025-of-ex-pm-yingluck-shinawatra
Former Ministry of Commerce official in the 2011–2014 government of Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra, Mr. Boonsong Teriyapirom (centre), was released from prison on Monday on parole. The 64-year-old was granted several remissions and finally released under the supervision of the probation service. A frail Mr. Boonsong had previously been sentenced to 48 years in prison. His release clears the way for the imminent return of former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra (inset left).

Speculation is rife in Bangkok that former Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra may return to Thailand in 2025. Notably, the release this week of former Minister of Commerce Boonsong Teriyapirom from prison has strengthened the rumours.

Mr. Boonsong, 64, was released on Monday wearing an ankle bracelet. On Tuesday, the frail-looking former minister was seen by the media in Chiang Mai. At length, his son escorted him to the local probation office.

The ex-minister was previously sentenced to 48 years in prison. Mr. Boonsong was the main driver of Ms. Yingluck’s ill-fated rice-pledging scheme from 2011 to 2014.

Coup d’état exposes losses from rice-pledging scheme and triggers legal action against Yingluck and others

Following the 2024 coup d’état, the scale of losses associated with the scheme was exposed. At the same time, the incoming government found evidence of malfeasance and fraud.

Criminal investigations were launched, and charges were brought. Ms. Yingluck failed to appear before a Supreme Court hearing in Bangkok on August 25, 2017. She particularly faced charges of negligence related to the scheme and was subsequently sentenced to five years in prison.

An arrest warrant was issued for the former premier. On that same day, in August 2017, Mr. Boonsong was initially handed a 42-year prison term. It was later increased to 48 years on appeal.

Nonetheless, much has changed with the return of Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra to Thailand last August.

Presently, Mr. Thaksin and his daughter, current Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, are politically ascendant. However, numerous potential legal pitfalls remain. The return of Ms. Yingluck Shinawatra is another politically risky move.

Yingluck Shinawatra clears final legal hurdle as rice scheme players are released from prison

All other cases, charges, and investigations against the former PM have either been resolved or dropped. At this time, the matter surrounding the rice scheme is the final legal hurdle linked to her return.

On Wednesday, the Department of Corrections confirmed that another key figure in the rice-pledging affair had been released. This was Mr. Apichart Chansakulporn, a rice trading tycoon.

Previously, the court handed down the heaviest sentence to this clique member, sentencing him to 66 years in prison.

Due to a severe illness and under departmental consideration, he was released from hospital on October 9. His sentence only expires on July 27, 2034. Mr. Apichart was being treated at Ramathibodi Hospital when he was released.

Up until Wednesday, it was thought that Mr. Apichart was still imprisoned. Due to previous sentences, it was believed he still faced a further 48 years behind bars.

Rice pledging disaster left top players jailed, but now all key figures have been paroled from prison

In September 2024, Mr. Boonsong’s deputy at the Ministry of Commerce, former Deputy Minister Poom Sarapol, was released. Mr. Poom had received a 36-year term and remains under the Probation Department’s supervision until August 25, 2025.

Simultaneously, officials such as former Department Director General Manas Soiploi and Thikamporn Nartworatat of the Rice Administration Office have all been released on parole. They received 40-year and 31-year prison sentences, respectively.

Undoubtedly, the rice-pledging scheme was an unmitigated disaster. Designed as a price support system, it went awry when market prices for rice fell. Indeed, they failed to match the ฿15,000 per ton advance offered by the government.

The government was left holding large amounts of unsold rice. Reports at the time suggested that rice was being imported from outside Thailand’s borders under the scheme and subsequently sold to the government for a profit.

Fraudulent rice deals exposed during General Prayut’s term led to massive losses and legal controversy

Recently, Deputy Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai sparked controversy by auctioning off the last stock of old rice.

Significantly, the government of General Prayut later discovered further anomalies and fraud in the scheme’s operation.

Many purported state-to-state deals between Thailand and China were, in reality, private deals orchestrated by Mr. Apichart. Despite these efforts, the government’s losses against the market were unavoidable.

Losses have been estimated as high as ฿620 billion, with ฿450 billion considered a base figure. The later government of General Prayut Chan-o-cha sold significant amounts of the rice, with sales ongoing until this year.

Former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has indicated that his sister will return to Thailand sometime in April 2025.

Upon her return, she will likely enter the justice system under the supervision of the Department of Corrections. However, it is widely anticipated that she will not serve real prison time as a regular inmate.

Critics claim Thaksin’s treatment undermines justice while supporters argue prosecutions were political

This will undoubtedly generate a political backlash within Thailand. Meanwhile, the treatment of Mr. Thaksin after his commitment to Klong Prem Prison on August 22, 2023, remains controversial.

It is claimed he did not spend a single night in prison. Instead, he was taken within hours to a luxury suite on the 14th floor of Police General Hospital.

Certainly, it is subject to numerous complaints filed with oversight agencies such as the National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC).

Critics argue that it has set a dangerous precedent, undermining the law and justice process.

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On the other hand, Thaksin’s supporters argue that the prosecutions were politically motivated. Combining legal prosecutions with political power creates dangerous ambiguities both in Thailand and, as of late, in the United States.

Furthermore, there is a sense of public fatigue regarding the continuous flow of complaints.

There seems to be less appetite for political division, particularly given the country’s economic challenges and external threats.

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