Nate Silver gives the former President a 58.2% chance of winning the Oval Office. Harris faces a tough challenge with key battleground states shifting while Trump’s legal hurdles recede.
It has been a bad week for Vice President Kamala Harris. Certainly, momentum behind Trump appears to be growing as the September 10 ABC TV debate approaches. In addition to having Robert F. Kennedy’s name pulled from the ballot in Michigan and North Carolina, polling appears to be turning in his favour. Indeed, respected and liberal pollster Nate Silver is now predicting a 58.2% likelihood of President Trump being re-elected to the White House. Furthermore, on Friday, it was confirmed that Trump will not face sentencing in a hush money trial in New York. At the earliest, this will happen sometime after the November 5th election.
Nate Silver, a prominent elections analyst and statistician, has released a new forecast that places former President Donald Trump in a strong position to win the Electoral College in the upcoming election against Vice President Kamala Harris. Silver’s latest predictions, posted on his Substack, suggest that Trump’s chances of winning have risen significantly, marking the highest probability since July 30.
Silver’s model, which is highly regarded for its accuracy in predicting election outcomes, now gives Trump a 58.2% chance of securing the Electoral College, up from 52.4% just a week prior. Meanwhile, Harris’s odds have dropped from 47.3% to 41.6%. This shift indicates a challenging landscape for Harris as she prepares for the final stretch of her campaign.
At the same time, both Michigan and North Carolina confirmed that former independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy can be removed from the ballot. The former Democrat now endorses President Trump. Certainly before dropping out, it was shown that his followers were two to one from Trump’s voting constituency. Additionally, an appeal is also in process in Wisconsin, another key battleground state.
Democrat controlled Election Boards in these states refused a request to remove his name made by Mr. Kennedy. He withdrew from the campaign last month.
Harris faces challenges in key Battleground states
Silver’s analysis suggests that Harris did not experience the expected boost from the Democratic National Convention (DNC). While convention bounces are often debated, Silver points to a series of “mediocre” state polls that have been troubling for the Harris campaign.
Specifically, Pennsylvania and Michigan—two critical battleground states—have shown signs of weakness for Harris, which could prove pivotal in the election.
Harris turns on the money taps as experts say the 2024 election will be even tighter than 2020
Pennsylvania holds 19 electoral votes. Silver recently warned that Harris might be a “slight underdog” there. This development is concerning for the Harris campaign, given Pennsylvania’s importance in determining the overall outcome of the election.
Silver reiterated this point in his latest forecast, emphasising that Michigan, with its 15 electoral votes, also presents challenges for Harris. Although Harris maintains a slim lead in Michigan, her advantage has narrowed from +3.1 points before the DNC to just +1.9 points now.
Voter enthusiasm and strategic decisions impacting Harris campaign. Questions about her VP pick
Silver’s forecast reflects the broader trends seen in national polls, where Harris has performed reasonably well.
However, the erosion of her support in key swing states like Pennsylvania and Michigan is a significant concern for her campaign.
Silver also noted that voter enthusiasm might be a critical factor in this race, particularly regarding Harris’s decision to bypass Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate.
While Harris enjoyed a surge of enthusiasm after President Joe Biden stepped aside and endorsed her, Silver suggests that the campaign has struggled to maintain that momentum.
The upcoming weeks will be crucial for both candidates as they navigate a complex electoral landscape. Harris’s campaign will need to find ways to regain ground in Pennsylvania and Michigan. They must also maintain her strength in other swing states.
Meanwhile, Trump’s campaign will likely focus on consolidating its lead in the Electoral College and capitalising on any further weaknesses in Harris’s support. Worryingly for Harris, the more the voters get to see of her, the less favourably inclined they are.
The war in Ukraine and a deteriorating economy are two issues that are rising on the radar.
Trump’s sentencing in ‘Hush Money’ case postponed
In addition to the electoral forecast, another significant development in the race is the postponement of Trump’s sentencing in the “hush money” case.
On Friday, a Manhattan judge granted Trump’s request to delay the proceedings until after the November election. This decision removes a potentially disruptive legal hurdle for Trump as he continues his campaign.
Trump was convicted in May on 34 felony counts. These related to falsifying business records to conceal hush money payments made during the 2016 election. Originally scheduled for sentencing in July, the proceedings were first postponed to September, and now, they will take place after the election.
The delay gives Trump a clear path to focus on his campaign without the distraction of legal proceedings.
Legal challenges aside, Trump maintains momentum
The decision to postpone the sentencing was not opposed by Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg’s office, which deferred to the court.
Trump, on his social media platform Truth Social, celebrated the decision, claiming that the case against him was baseless and politically motivated.
As the election draws near, both Trump and Harris are intensifying their campaigns. Harris has made significant gains since Biden’s endorsement, effectively eliminating Trump’s earlier polling advantage.
However, the race remains highly competitive, with both candidates neck and neck in the polls.
Their next major confrontation will occur during the presidential debate in Philadelphia. Undoubtedly, it is expected to be a critical moment in this campaign.
Trump, for his part, has continued to portray the legal cases against him as politically motivated attacks aimed at undermining his candidacy. He has repeatedly denied any wrongdoing and has labelled the cases as “election interference” orchestrated by his opponents, including Harris.
Despite these legal challenges, Trump’s campaign has managed to maintain strong support among his base. His improved polling numbers in key states reflect this resilience.
High Stakes as Election Day approaches
As the election approaches, both campaigns face significant challenges. For Harris, the key will be reversing the recent polling trends in states like Pennsylvania and Michigan. For Trump, the focus will be on maintaining his momentum.
At the same time, he already has overcome the legal battles. They no longer continue to loom over his campaign. Indeed, they may have buoyed his support but could yet prove problematic.
With the race tightening, the final weeks leading up to the election will be critical. Both candidates will need to navigate a complex political landscape.
This means balancing campaign strategy with the legal and political challenges that define this high-stakes contest. After that, both campaigns must additionally be on guard for an October surprise.
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