Arakan Army poised to seize control of Myanmar’s Rakhine State as junta power crumbles. Strategic Sittwe under threat. The rise of this powerful force challenges both the National Unity Government and Myanmar’s military regime, sparking regional uncertainty. However, these concerns must take a backseat for now as anti-junta forces emphasise a united front against the despised regime in Nay Pyi Taw.
The latest news from Burma is the rise of another powerful state army similar to the United Wa State Army. On Wednesday and Thursday, the powerful Arakan Army was readying to seize control of Sittwe as it completes its takeover of the western state of Rakhine. The state, on the Bay of Bengal and bordering Bangladesh, is set to come under the rule of the armed group, which advocates a one-party state in the region and is only very loosely aligned with the National Unity Government. Certainly, if it has any allegiance, it is towards the United Wa State Army in northern Burma, bordering Thailand and China, which indirectly sponsors both.
After months of sporadic fighting and ongoing offensives, the Myanmar junta is facing collapse in western Rakhine State. In short, the powerful Arakan Army, which is sponsored by the powerful Chinese-backed United Wa State Army in northern Burma, is set to launch a final assault on the state capital, Sittwe.
Sittwe, on the Bay of Bengal, is a strategically important city. In 2006, it had a population of 181,000 people. The ongoing conflict in the troubled state lowered this to 100,748 in 2014.
In particular, this is significant in relation to Indian and Chinese commercial development plans. In January 2024, the Arakan Army seized the strategically important town of Paletwa in northern Chin State. This equally important location is just 18 km from the border with Bangladesh.
The junta has issued a state of emergency in Rakhine as it loses control of the state.
Arakan Army strengthens hold over western Rakhine State, junta struggles and loses ground on all fronts
In short, the Arakan Army, which used the civil war initially to consolidate its power in the north of the state, has swept to power since it began its onslaught on weakened junta positions in November 2023.
Undoubtedly, the junta, which was losing manpower not only in combat but also through desertion, was ill-equipped to deal with this. In short, it has simultaneously been attacked on all fronts this year. Consequently, it has become severely weakened.
Presently, the Arakan Army is now in a situation where it can effectively create an independent Rakhine State. Certainly, the success of the rebel movement is being viewed cautiously by the National Unity Government.
For instance, it is widely known that the Arakan Army had a difficult relationship with the National League for Democracy Party of Aung San Suu Kyi before the civil war broke out after the February 2021 coup d’état.
Despite leadership’s efforts, Arakan Army faces accusations of persecution from Rohingya Muslims
At the same time, reports on Thursday via CNN from Cox’s Bazar in Bangladesh suggest widespread reports from Muslim Rohingya that they were being systematically persecuted by the Arakan Army victors.
This comes despite calls from the Arakan Army leadership this year for Rohingya Muslims to join the force. Indeed, it renamed itself the ‘Arakha Army’ to represent all communities within Rakhine State.
The state had a population of over 3.18 million people before the Civil War. Approximately 63% of these were Buddhist, while 35% were Muslim. Some reports suggest that presently the Arakan Army has been administering an area with just over 1 million people.
At length, at least 700,000 Rohingya Muslims fled the troubled state after facing persecution by Myanmar’s military and junta.
However, all this may be set to change. The gains by the powerful local army, second only to the United Wa Army, are seen as significant. In short, this may cause both the Chinese and Indian governments to re-evaluate their relationship with the junta in Nay Pyi Taw.
At the same time, the powerful army is reportedly receiving Chinese weaponry via the United Wa Army.
Arakan Army’s advance continues with major gains and strategic victories, weakening the junta further
Since the beginning of 2024, the Arakan Army has made substantial gains throughout Rakhine State. In addition, it has inflicted significant losses on the embattled regime, with large numbers of troops killed.
Furthermore, there have been significant onslaughts on the junta’s naval forces in the state, with many craft lost.
Furthermore, at the end of June, the Arakan Army captured Thandwe Airport, the first air facility to fall since the 2021 coup and civil war. The force claims to have up to forty thousand disciplined soldiers under its command.
At the same time, there is thought to be a difference in emphasis between the Arakan Army’s plans for Rakhine State and those of the National Unity Government.
Burma’s General Min Aung Hlaing suffers more setbacks as his regime moves towards collapse
For a start, the powerful military and nationalist movement does not value democracy. In brief, it plans a one-party Rakhine State. After that, there is concern from the People’s Defence Armed Forces (PDF) in Chin State that the army may not relinquish the strategically important town of Paletwa.
However, for now, this is a victory for the anti-junta forces in Burma and, certainly, another step towards the ultimate total defeat of the regime of General Min Aung Hlaing.
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