Sirikanya Tansakul MP is tipped as the new progressive torch bearer if Move Forward is dissolved. Legal experts predict the party’s dissolution and a 10-year ban for its executives. Move Forward’s MPs are expected to join a new party under Sirikanya’s leadership.
The country’s largest political party, and main element of the parliamentary opposition, is poised to react to next Wednesday’s Constitutional Court judgement, which is scheduled to be read out at 3 PM. Most legal experts and academics predict that the Move Forward Party will be dissolved and its executive members banned from politics for 10 years. However, a new party and a new leader are already touted to carry the progressive torch. Star parliamentary performer Sirikanya Tansakul is tipped for the role.
Over last weekend, key leaders of the Move Forward Party were quietly consulting ahead of Wednesday’s decision of the Constitutional Court, which will decide the fate of the political party.
The court has already indicated that a judgement will be handed down at 3 pm. In short, the 9-member court will give a decision in response to a petition by the Election Commission.
This was brought under Section 92 of the Organic Law on Political Parties 2017.
Move Forward Party charged with trying to overthrow the government and constitutional order in Thailand
At length, the Move Forward Party is charged with trying to overthrow the ‘democratic form of government with the King as Head of State’.
In turn, this comes after a significant January 31st ruling by the court. In summary, the judges ruled that the Move Forward Party’s election manifesto in the May 2023 General Election promising reform of Article 112 of the Criminal Code amounted to an attempt to overthrow the government.
Significantly, Article 112 has previously been altered by governments in the past in Thailand. However, not under the terms of the 2017 Constitution.
Basically, over previous decades, the kingdom has enshrined stricter constitutional provisions when it comes to the country’s monarchy.
Crucially, in its judgement in January, the court warned that any attempt to reform or adjust the criminal code provision was a breach of the constitution.
Main opposition party and the Kingdom’s largest complies with court ruling but challenges proceedings
Indeed, following the ruling, the Move Forward Party itself deleted any mention of its 2023 manifesto pledges and other campaign material in obedience to the ruling.
The party returned 151 MPs at the May 2023 General Election. Indeed, it was the runaway winner of the poll. Nonetheless, it was sidelined as the main opposition party by an unexpected deal between the Pheu Thai Party and parties linked with the previous coalition government.
In the meantime, however, the party has continued to argue that as legislators, they have the right to amend all laws in parliament.
In addition, the Move Forward Party has furthermore questioned the validity of the proceedings before the court.
The party’s legal advisers have argued that the Election Commission should not simply have relied on the court ruling. Certainly, this was the prima facie basis for the commission’s application to the court.
According to Move Forward Party’s advisors and the party’s interim leader Mr. Chaitawat Tulathon MP, any move to dissolve the party should have been dealt with first by the Election Commission itself.
In short, the Move Forward Party should have been allowed to question the move and refute its legitimacy before the matter was brought before the court.
Experts including top scholars believe Move Forward will be dissolved on August 7th and its executive barred
Nonetheless, most experts and observers in Thailand believe that the party will be dissolved on Wednesday, August 7th. These include the country’s leading legal academics. In particular after the Constitutional Court’s ruling on January 31st 2024.
Reports on Sunday suggested that the Move Forward Party MPs will consequently move en masse to a new political party. At length, if the party is dissolved, then its executives will also lose their seats.
Furthermore, they will be barred from politics for 10 years. Certainly, this includes the country’s most popular politician and pick for Prime Minister Mr. Pita Limjaroenrat.
Meanwhile, rumours abound that the existing government parties will try to coax away ‘cobra’ MPs to shore up their ranks. In particular, the Palang Pracharat Party has been associated with these reports as well as the Bhumjaithai Party.
Morale reportedly remains strong among the embattled party’s MPs despite its probable demise on Wednesday
However, sources within the Move Forward Party last weekend revealed that morale within the ranks of Move Forward Party MPs is strong.
Moreover, all will be aware that a breach of faith with progressive voters will undoubtedly end their political careers when the existing parliament is dissolved.
In brief, this was ultimately the fate of former Future Forward Party MPs who defected when that party was dissolved in 2020. They were shunned by voters in the May 2023 General Election.
In recent days, both Mr. Pita and Mr. Chaitawat have spoken about next Wednesday’s decisive moment. Mr. Pita said he is resigned to whatever outcome emerges. He pointed to 33 political parties that have been dissolved by the courts in Thailand to date.
In short, he described such events as weakening the will of the people.
He said it undermined politics and predicted that the dissolution of the Move Forward Party would produce greater political instability in the country.
Future of Thai politics may hinge on Wednesday’s court’s ruling and the creation of a new party torch-bearer
At the same time, Mr. Chaitawat said that on Wednesday, the bigger picture is the court’s ruling itself. He said he would be looking closely at the judgement’s wording and legal logic.
For instance, the dissolution of the Move Forward Party on the basis proposed would have severe ramifications for politics and democracy in Thailand in the future.
Certainly, he insisted, it was more important than the future of Move Forward itself.
At this time, it is thought that Ms. Sirikanya Tansakul will emerge as the leader of the new party. In short order, the Thinkakhao Chaovilai Party is expected to be rebranded.
No new name has been forthcoming, but it will certainly be a progression from Move Forward as it was from Future Forward. A new torch bearer.
Thinkakhao Chaovilai Party set to be rebranded while leading MPs continue to face potential legal jeopardy
Thinkakhao Chaovilai is an obscure political party with over ten thousand members that has been established for some time. Despite fielding over a dozen candidates in the 2023 General Election, none were elected.
It has an executive which was appointed in April 2024. The party is presently headquartered at an address within a Bangkok housing estate.
Nonetheless, Ms. Sirikanya herself and a significant number of the new party’s MPs will subsequently find themselves in jeopardy.
A National Anti-Corruption Commission (NACC) probe is currently looking at the political party’s effort to amend Article 112.
In particular, they are studying a parliamentary motion brought in 2022 to amend the provision. Previously, this was supported by 44 MPs, including Ms. Sirikanya.
If proceedings emerge from this and Ms. Sirikanya Tansakul is found guilty, then she faces being barred from politics for life.
Ms Sirikanya emerges as a more significant figure in Thai politics. A female leader taking on the charge
43-year-old Ms. Sirikanya emerged into prominence in May 2023 when a ‘government of hope’ was proposed comprising seven parties.
In short, this included the Move Forward Party and Pheu Thai Party. At the time, Ms. Sirikanya was touted as a future Minister of Finance.
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Afterwards, she emerged as the economic team leader for the Move Forward Party. Undeniably, in this role, she has shined.
Her parliamentary performances and economic insights this year have rattled the Pheu Thai-led government
Indeed, her parliamentary performances have often shaken the government.
So much so that Ms. Sirikanya is seen as the biggest threat to Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin when it comes to economic matters, in particular the Digital Wallet plan.
The party list MP is a graduate of Thammasat University where she studied Economics. Afterwards, she obtained a Master’s degree at the University of Toulouse in France.
Subsequently, she worked in the private sector as a consultant and then with the Thailand Development Research Institute (TDRI).
Her emergence as the main opposition party leader while Paetongtarn Shinawatra is the titular head of the ruling Pheu Thai Party has intrigued commentators.
However, it appears that the days of two ‘Queens’ at the head of Thailand’s main political parties may be short-lived if indeed it ever comes to pass.
Ms. Sirikanya is expected to be challenged for the role of party leader in the new party which emerges if the Move Forward Party is dissolved.
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Further reading:
Political maelstrom may be unleashed in June with potential crises brewing and coming to a climax
PM survives Constitutional Court’s call in a close run thing raising real questions over his future
PM Srettha Thavisin could be temporarily toppled from power on Thursday by the Constitutional Court
Digital Wallet plan blown out of the water by corruption body on Tuesday warning of illegality
