PM Srettha faces a critical test on August 14th as the Constitutional Court rules on his controversial appointment of a cabinet minister in April. Political upheaval looms amid a backdrop of a struggling economy and growing public dissatisfaction. This decision could reshape the government amidst intense behind-the-scenes rivalries.
As Thailand’s embattled Prime Minister grieves his beloved mother, he is also caught in the maelstrom of dangerous political waters. On August 14th, Mr. Srettha’s tenure in office faces a critical test when the Constitutional Court will rule on his controversial appointment of a junior minister at the end of April. One way or the other, the court’s decision will lead to a political upheaval as a behind-the-scenes rivalry is expected to play out.
Since assuming office in August last year, Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin’s government has been bedevilled by a weaker-than-expected economy.
At the same time, the prime minister’s popularity has slipped as public dissatisfaction grows with what was already an unpopular and ill-suited coalition in the first place.
On Monday, Prime Minister Srettha’s elderly mother passed away. It comes at a time when he finds himself in the political crossfire between the de facto leader of the Pheu Thai Party, former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, and the Palang Pracharat Party’s leader, former Deputy Prime Minister General Prawit Wongsuwan.
PM Srettha’s loss of his mother coincides with renewed political instability and a key decision on his future
The PM himself is reported to have told colleagues and friends that the loss of his mother has hit him hard. His mother passed away on Monday.
Ms. Chodchoi Thavisin was born in 1928 and later married Lieutenant Colonel Amnuay Thavisin. The couple had one child, Mr. Srettha. However, the young boy lost his father in 1966 when he was just three years old.
Afterwards, Ms. Chodchoi raised her son and saw him educated in the United States. In turn, he established his own business and was extremely successful. The Prime Minister was appointed by the King to the role on August 22nd, 2023.
Reports suggest that the PM cared dutifully for his mother up until her death this week. Certainly, he has told associates that her loss has been a profound moment for him.
PM faces major political battle and legal scrutiny over April appointment of Pichit Chuenban as a minister
In the meantime, the Mr Srettha finds himself at the centre of a major political battle.
His appointment of a lawyer linked with the Shinawatra family in April has landed him before the Constitutional Court. Pichit Chuenban was named Prime Minister’s Office minister in the April cabinet re-shuffle.
In May, the court decided to take up the case. At the same time, it did not suspend him from performing his duties. The crux of the case is that Mr. Pichit, in July 2008, was discovered to be linked to a bribery attempt. The bribery case related to officials at the Supreme Court.
In short, ฿2 million was found in a lunchbox, in the precincts of the court. This happened during a corruption case against Mr. Thaksin Shinawatra and his wife. Consequently, Mr. Pichit was found guilty of contempt of court and served six months in prison.
Constitutionality of the PM’s appointment raises concerns over ethics and integrity
Those seeking Mr. Srettha’s removal suggest the ministerial appointment was a breach of the 2017 Constitution.
Section 160 (4) and (5) deals with the ethics and integrity required of ministers. Meanwhile, Sections 160 (6) and (7) deal with electoral qualifications and other matters relating to a ministerial appointment.
These sections particularly deal with a minister who has been convicted and sentenced for an offence. In brief, the legal team representing Mr. Srettha, led by government adviser Wissanu Krea-ngam, says he made the appointment in good faith.
They further argue that a check was made with the Council of State regarding the appointment.
PM’s defence relies on his lack of legal expertise and administrative knowledge
Certainly, in any event, it will be further argued that as a former businessman, Mr. Srettha had no command of administrative and legal processes. In short, he acted in good faith or on the advice of senior officials.
Constitutional Court update: Senate race gets the all-clear while PM and Move Forward must wait til July
PM survives Constitutional Court’s call in a close run thing raising real questions over his future
A statement is to be lodged by Mr. Srettha’s defence team on Wednesday, consisting of 2-3 pages. Simultaneously, a final summary is also to be filed by 40 former senators who brought the case.
These are being led by Mr. Somchai Sawaengkarn. It is expected that they will suggest that the Council of State was only asked to comment on Mr. Pichit’s appointment under Sections 160 (6) and (7) of the Constitution.
Political crisis looms in Thailand as this key decision could spark a reshaping of the government
Undeniably, the August 14th decision could spark a political crisis in Thailand.
The Pheu Thai Party has already lost ground to the Bhumjaithai Party, which has stormed to an unofficial victory in the Thai Senate election. The third largest party is understood to control up to 75% of the upper house at this time.
While no political parties are allowed, the Bhumjaithai Party senators refer to themselves as the Blue group.
Last week, Prime Minister Srettha was forced into an embarrassing climb down from his May order to recriminalise cannabis.
Power of Anutin and Bhumjaithai grows as Pheu Thai and Srettha make an embarrassing U-turn on Pot
Nonetheless, it is thought that there is a bigger political game afoot.
Firstly, the decision on the Move Forward Party’s future will be made by the Constitutional Court on August 7th.
Most pundits and politicians expect the party not to survive. In turn, this will see the other main parties reaching out to the rump of that party looking for a new home.
New political movements may emerge as the division widens between behind-the-scenes leaders
Of course, the party is still Thailand’s most popular political movement with nearly half the electorate behind it. In brief, it is expected that a new party centred around parliamentary star performer Sirikanya Tansakul MP will emerge.
However, bubbling in the background is the real story in the shorter term.
A fracture or division has opened up between Pheu Thai Party de facto leader Thaksin Shinawatra and Palang Pracharat Party leader General Prawit Wongsuwan.
In short, Mr. Thaksin has lost trust in the backroom agreement that led to his return in August 2023. Certainly, he is understood to have referred to General Prawit disparagingly as the ‘man who lives in the woods’.
At the same time, Thaksin is thought to believe that General Prawit has considerable power. In particular, he believes General Prawit was linked to the senators who took the case against Mr Srettha in May.
Outcome of this political battle could redefine Thailand’s future leadership and the political landscape
Therefore, if Mr. Srettha survives on August 14th, the government may move to exclude the Palang Pracharat Party from the cabinet.
In turn, this would probably mean the end of the road for the former ruling party, which has negligible public support. Simultaneously, that party is split down the middle with a cohort of MPs loyal to Minister of Agriculture Thamanat Prompow.
Consequently, moves would be made to create a replacement for the Palang Pracharat Party, which may involve the Democrat Party or MPs from the Move Forward Party joining with the ranks of the Bhumjaithai Party or Pheu Thai.
In contrast, if Mr. Srettha is removed, his government fails with him.
Then, General Prawit’s opportunity to strike may come amidst a weakened Pheu Thai Party and a limited number of options that parliament can elect as Prime Minister based on the candidates proposed after the May 2023 General Election.
Join the Thai News forum, follow Thai Examiner on Facebook here
Receive all our stories as they come out on Telegram here
Follow Thai Examiner here
Further reading:
Political maelstrom may be unleashed in June with potential crises brewing and coming to a climax
PM survives Constitutional Court’s call in a close run thing raising real questions over his future
PM Srettha Thavisin could be temporarily toppled from power on Thursday by the Constitutional Court
Digital Wallet plan blown out of the water by corruption body on Tuesday warning of illegality
