ASEAN summit in Laos sees rising world tensions and potential South China Sea conflict. Thailand pushes for a South China Sea code as diplomats from China, Russia, and the US address the Philippines clash and regional fault lines at sea.
Thailand’s Foreign Minister is presently in Vientiane as East Asian Foreign Ministers are meeting. They have been joined this week by the top diplomats of China, Russia, and the United States as matters in the Indo-Pacific are on the brink of threatening world peace. During the week, Thailand reportedly tried to push a South China Sea code of Conduct or agreement between China and ASEAN countries involved in disputes. However, Beijing’s standoff with the Philippines is what is occupying minds. It comes following June’s violent clash when Chinese and Philippine forces came to blows.
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Laos on Saturday where ASEAN foreign ministers are in conclave togther with other East Asian ministers.
At the meeting in Vientiane, both Russia’s top envoy and China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi were also present this week. Following a meeting between Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Mr. Wang, the Chinese news agency Xinhua announced ‘deepening strategic cooperation’ between the two allies.
In particular, the standoff between China and the Philippines over the Second Thomas Shoal, 220 km off the Philippines coast.
Violent clashes between China and the Philippines at Second Thomas Shoal disrupt regional peace
In June, this particular dispute between China and ASEAN members saw disturbingly violent scenes. Chinese naval forces and coast guard carrying knives and axes clashed with Philippines personnel resupplying a scuttled Philippine warship in the area.
Eight Filipino personnel were hurt with one losing a finger.
Maris at BRICS Summit in Russia insists unaligned Thailand is friends with all despite the 1954 US pact
Regional peace threatened. Shocking conflict between Chinese and Filipino forces at sea on Monday
Previously, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr had warned that the loss of a Philippines armed forces member would almost certainly constitute an act of war.
This point was emphasised on Thursday by Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi as he went into talks with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. ‘One wrong step in the South China Sea will turn a small fire into a terrible firestorm,’ he warned.
Indonesia, Vietnam, and Brunei face escalating conflicts with China, ASEAN bloc is under strain
Indonesia itself has an escalating conflict with China over its territorial waters. In addition, so do Vietnam and Brunei.
After extensive talks, in particular on Thursday night, the ASEAN ministers agreed that the bloc should not be a proxy for either the United States or China in what are growing tensions focused on the Indo-Pacific.
However, both Cambodia and Laos within the bloc are now seen openly as Chinese stalwarts. At the same time, there is growing unease about Thailand’s position.
Meanwhile, Myanmar’s representative at the talks, a Foreign Ministry official Mr. Aung Kyaw Moe, was supportive of the failing junta’s key ally, China.
A ‘South China Sea Code of Conduct’ is being promoted by Thailand. It is represented at the talks by Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa.
Last Sunday, there were signals that the Philippines had reached an accomodation with Beijing.
However, this week, new reports have emerged that China is prepared to strike a decisive blow in the dispute.
US doubles down on Philippine’s defence. Thailand’s role under scrutiny if conflict escalates
Following June’s incident, the United States doubled down on its 1951 treaty alliance with the Philippines. In short, if the Philippines is attacked by China, then the United States will also be at war with China.
Significantly, Thailand is a US military ally under the 1954 Manila Pact.
Nevertheless, this pact has been updated over the decades. Undeniably, it is far from clear what Thailand’s position would be if a conflict were to break out.
America insists that the South China Sea be kept open for maritime vessels and transit. The waterway is a key gateway for international trade. The sea accounts for 22% of international trade and a third of shipping.
Notably, its strategic importance is in decline although still critical. The Philippines had previously contested China’s claims under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea at the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague.
The case, which ran from 2013-2019, ended with China’s claims being dismissed as having no basis.
Philippines dissatisfied with ASEAN support. Thailand offers aid for Myanmar’s crisis
Certainly, the Philippines is known to be unhappy with the level of support it is receiving from its ASEAN partners.
On Thursday in Vientiane, it insisted that June’s clash at sea be dealt with in any communiqué.
Reports suggest that the Philippines delegation led by Secretary for Foreign Affairs of the Philippines Enrique Manalo wanted to insert words such as ‘injuries’ and ‘damage’ in the concluding statement.
This week also Thai Foreign Minister Maris Sangiampongsa spoke of the crisis in Burma.
In short, he emphasised that the Kingdom would not get involved in the internal affairs of its western neighbour.
Nonetheless, there was broad support within the ASEAN bloc for Bangkok to play a more prominent role. Thailand has previously suggested working with India and the Myanmar junta to help resolve what is now a civil war.
Thailand pledges humanitarian aid amid Myanmar junta’s struggles and UN concerns
At the ASEAN meeting, Mr. Maris drew attention to $250,000 in funding provided by Thailand for humanitarian relief.
It comes with growing signs that the junta is failing with key setbacks occurring in recent days.
This week, a United Nations panel on Myanmar highlighted that the junta led by General Min Aung Hlaing now only administers 14% of Burma’s territory and 34% of its population.
Burma’s General Min Aung Hlaing suffers more setbacks as his regime moves towards collapse
In brief, it is clear that the National Unity Government and the people of Burma must resolve this conflict for themselves.
Meanwhile, there are signs that Thailand is reacting to concerns highlighted by United Nations Rapporteur Tom Andrews recently over financial facilities being offered to the sinking junta regime.
This week, stronger screening was proposed between government agencies in Bangkok and leading banks to uphold UN sanctions on the junta.
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