Burma’s General Min Aung Hlaing suffers another setback as his regime moves towards certain collapse. The fall of the military’s Northeastern headquarters in Shan State leaves the junta controlling just 14% of Burma’s territory and 34% of its population.
On Thursday, the military junta of General Min Aung Hlaing suffered another setback with the fall of the military’s Northeastern headquarters in Shan State. It came just 24 hours after reports reached Nay Pyi Taw of yet another military setback in Western Rakhine State. Presently, the embattled junta only controls 14% of Burma’s territory and 34% of its population. In the meantime, it is losing both military and financial power to prosecute what is certainly a losing war with its own population.
In a week in which Burmese junta strongman General Min Aung Hlaing took over the role of President of the beleaguered state, the junta forces have received another severe blow.
This came from the northeastern Shan state, the country’s largest. In short, the military’s junta headquarters in Shan, situated in Lashio, fell to rebel forces.
Despite a short-term ceasefire from July 14th to 18th brokered by China, the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA) continued its advance in the region.
Lashio falls to rebels amid ongoing MNDAA offensive in northeastern Shan state as Burmese army retreats
Reuters confirmed the surrender of the town on Thursday. It was home to the Burmese Army’s Northeastern Command. Its capture followed 23 days of fierce fighting.
At the same time, the Burmese armed forces are weakening and losing ground in other parts of Burma.
For instance, on Wednesday it was confirmed that a key junta naval base had been cut off in the Thandwe Township of Rakhine State. There, the junta has been on the back foot since November 2023 as the Arakan Army (AA) prosecutes a successful offensive.
War in Myanmar is making Thai officials nervous with ominous signs that the military junta is faltering
The rebel forces have secured most of the township, with junta forces falling back to Jeiktaw Ward, on the southern tip of the area.
In the meantime, the rebels have seized the town, a prison, and a local airport.
Rebel advances in Rakhine state cut off key junta bases and secure critical locations. Junta casualties reported
On Monday, the Arakan Army (AA) attacked the Kwin Wyne naval base using drones and rockets. One local confirmed that there had been casualties.
“I heard junta soldiers including officers were killed when the AA attacked the naval base with rockets,” he informed news agencies.
Meanwhile, a military analyst observing the inexorable fall of the junta explained the latest developments in Western Rakhine State.
“The regime is mounting a defence in Jeiktaw as it tries not to lose control of Ngapali. The regime has reinforced Jeiktaw with troops from the Ayeyarwady Region. Now that the AA has attacked the naval base, the junta troops are trapped in Jeiktaw,” he explained. “The naval base is helpless as junta troops in Gwa can’t reach it.”
Junta forces struggle to defend key positions as rebel attacks intensify in all parts of the country
Meanwhile, back in Shan State, the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar has confirmed that the junta is losing control. The group of academics and UN officials paint a grim picture. The junta has lost control of 86% of Burma’s territory. At this time, it also exercises power over only 34% of the population.
Certainly, these are in key urban centres. However, General Min Aung Hlaing and his junta are still loathed by up to 80% of the population in cities like Yangon.
In Shan state, the MNDAA announced its victory in Lashio.
“Our troops have achieved a great victory. They are currently clearing the remnants of the enemy’s troops. While the city has been completely liberated,” the armed group’s statement read. In addition, it urged the public to cooperate with its officers and keep the peace.
Special Advisory Council reports junta losing control of vast swathes of Burmese territory, 86% now liberated
In Bangkok this week, the Kingdom’s leading banks agreed on a new regulatory oversight regime in respect of the Burmese junta. This came following a UN report presented by rapporteur Tom Andrews. Andrews identified a sharp rise in financial transactions linked with supplies to the failing regime from Thai firms.
Nonetheless, evidence suggests that the regime’s ability to replenish its resources is failing.
At the same time, the UN is acknowledging that this is a fully-fledged civil war. No less than 2.6 million Burmese people have been displaced.
Undoubtedly, the moment of final collapse for General Min Aung Hlaing’s murderous regime is approaching.
It is understood that Thailand is working behind the scenes at brokering a peace deal.
Thailand linked with efforts to broker peace amid escalating civil war and weakening junta in Burma
This would come between the junta and the National Unity Government (NUG). The NUG is a shadow government linked to democratic forces fighting the military and a broad alliance of armed ethnic groups.
The challenge facing the country’s democratic shadow government is how to re-establish a viable federated state that brings peace and the rule of law to all areas of Myanmar or Burma.
The fear is that an uncontrolled collapse of the Burmese junta may plunge the country into further chaos.
Undeniably local warlords are already a problem in several autonomous states. A key example of this is the Wa state on Thailand’s northern border. The autonomous region has a powerful local army. It is also reputedly the base for a massive worldwide narcotics production and export network.
In short, the overthrow of General Min Aung Hlaing’s junta can be seen as an essential first step. The goal of a more stable Burma on Thailand’s western and northern borders is, as yet, far off and less certain.
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Further reading:
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Bangkok sends delegation to meet Myanmar’s pariah junta regime in its eerie capital Nay Pyi Taw
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