Amidst political twists and predictions, senators foresee Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin lasting the year in 2024. However, the simmering Thaksin Shinawatra imprisonment issue demands resolution to avoid division and conflict. As Thailand navigates political complexities, the year ahead holds a mix of optimism and caution. A pivotal January 24th Constitutional Court decision looms.
After a momentous year in politics with the May 14th General Election and dramatic events of August 22nd which saw Srettha Thavisin elected as PM, the day Thaksin Shinawatra returned home, the country seeks stability in the year ahead. Two veterans of the Thai Senate or Upper House offer slightly different views of 2024 politically. In the Western world they say a week in politics is a long time. In Thailand, much can happen in a day and none of it predictable. What does 2024 hold?
As Thailand bids farewell to the old year and welcomes the Chinese Year of the Dragon, political figures and diviners are engaged in a lively debate over the fate of the government. Predictions range from prolonged stability to potential upheavals.
The political grapevine in Bangkok speaks of a divided cabinet. Much has been made, for instance, of a sudden order this week from the Prime Minister’s Office. In short, the command transferred Deputy Prime Minister Somsak Thepsutin from his oversight role in Justice and Security to Public Health.
Order moving Deputy Prime Minister Somsak Thepsutin away from the Ministry of Justice raises questions about underlying tensions over Thaksin Shinawatra
PM Srettha Thavisin signed the order transferring oversight of the Ministry of Justice to Deputy Prime Minister Pirapan Salirathavibhaga instead. Mr Pirapan is Minister of Energy and leader of the conservative United Thai Nation (Ruam Thai Sang Chart) Party.
At the same time, the move came after Mr Somsak, a former Minister of Justice, bluntly said that ex-Premier Thaksin Shinawatra could be released to serve the remainder of his shortened prison sentence at home.
This issue has been fixated on by diehard government critics.
Previously, Mr Thaksin was transferred to Police General Hospital within hours of being lodged in prison on August 22nd. The same day Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was elected Prime Minister.
Thaksin can serve the rest of his prison term at home says Deputy Prime Minister Somsak Thepsutin
Seasoned political observers agree that the Thaksin Shinawatra issue must be nipped in the bud by the government soon.
It has the potential to cause division and become a focal point for more conservative political factions. Indeed, this is already the case, with groups, at this time, actively using the controversy to rally support.
Senator and fortune teller predicts that Srettha Thavisin’s grip on power will strengthen in 2024 from mid-year onwards. Thaksin issue to resolve itself
Inevitably their target will become the government.
In the meantime, Senator Wanchai Sonsiri, a well-known political fortune teller, says there is no need to worry.
At this time, he has shared insights on Facebook. Significantly, the upper house member dismissed rumours of unrest sparked by the ‘Thaksin on the 14th floor’ issue.
He expressed confidence that the government could endure and continue its course. In his post on December 31, 2023, he outlined key points for the upcoming year.
Wanchai highlighted the unique background of the current government.
Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin was born in the Year of the Golden Rabbit. According to him, this suggests broad support from various factions, both old and new powers, ensuring a strong and stable administration.
Pheu Thai shows signs of having learned a lot from previous government experiences including coup d’états and virulent street protests
Evidently, Pheu Thai, based on its prior government experiences, has learned a lot. Senator Wanchai noted the party has in the past suffered virulent street protests, rallies, imprisonments, and coup d’états.
Drawing a parallel with General Prayut’s experiences in the military, he emphasised the importance of learning from past challenges to ensure longevity.
Wanchai predicted a political landscape dominated by two parties, Pheu Thai and Move Forward.
He sees Pheu Thai vigorously pursuing its own agenda after its return to power. He anticipated accelerated efforts to achieve political goals, particularly given the astrological alignment favouring political and economic advancements.
The senator points to significant political events in May next year.
He suggested that by mid-year, favourable conditions would emerge for the economy, society, and politics. This will enable the government to operate at full capacity.
The Thaksin issue will resolve itself in February. The Thai public has had enough already of protests
Addressing concerns about the Thaksin on the 14th floor issue, Wanchai dismissed the idea of serious consequences for the government.
He believed that even if protests occurred, they would be ineffective against the government’s strong fortunes.
Senator Wannchai points out that the Thai public has enough unrest and political division at the present time.
Additionally, he predicted a resolution to Thaksin’s case in February.
Wanchai concluded by foreseeing a government without major challenges. He predicts that Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin will be able to continue its course without significant opposition.
He envisioned rising public support if the government delivered on its policies, with the possibility of a change in the prime minister in the third or fourth year of the term.
Another upper house member, Senator Kittisak Rattanawaraha is more sceptical about the fortunes of this coalition government and the dangers it faces
However, not all voices share this optimistic outlook.
Senator Kittisak Rattanawaraha raises concerns about Prime Minister Srettha’s future. The well-known conservative suggested he might not last beyond December 2024.
Kittisak cited issues with power management and speculated on potential challenges arising from the Thaksin case, the government’s response to people’s problems, and the digital wallet project.
According to Kittisak, Thaksin’s case will act as a trigger for opposition.
It will depend on how well Srettha manages public sentiment.
This, consequently, will influence the government’s stability. He highlighted the need for effective problem-solving to ensure both the government’s and the prime minister’s ability to stay in power.
Digital Wallet scheme could be a banana peel for Srettha
The digital wallet project, seen as a potential risk, could also play a crucial role.
If the government dares to issue a loan bill to distribute money to the people and faces resistance in the House of Representatives, it may lead to severe consequences, including the prime minister’s resignation.
The unwieldy scheme is a potential banana peel that awaits Srettha.
Of course, others have also warned him such as street protest organiser turned political pundit, Jatuporn Prompan.
Digital Wallet plan could break up the government before it launches says top Thai political pundit
Public has not forgotten the backroom deals in August. Move Forward Party is even more popular
Moreover, the looming possibility of a vote of no confidence in March 2024 adds to the challenge.
The Move Forward Party is expected to heavily attack the government during this process, potentially jeopardising its stability.
Government is not popular but Srettha increasingly is
The government is already not very popular. This was seen in a recent National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) poll. In contrast, the poll showed rising support for Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin.
As Thailand navigates the complexities of economic challenges, political manoeuvring, as well as old and new divisions, the year ahead promises to be a dynamic one.
In summary, there are grounds for both optimism and caution as events shape the country’s political landscape.
Amidst it all, one date, for now, stands out. That is January 24th, 2024 when the Constitutional Court decides the fate of the country’s most popular choice for Prime Minister and the winner of the May 14th General Election, Pita Limjaroenrat.
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Further reading:
Public has not forgotten the backroom deals in August. Move Forward Party is even more popular
Chalermchai Sri-on is new Democrat Party leader after a day of stunning political drama in Bangkok
‘Madame Dear’ throws her hat in the ring for the Democrat Party leadership with the party at war
Democrat Party top leader warns of voices of hate toppling the ‘spirit of democracy’ in Thailand
Compromise mooted between Pheu Thai and Move Forward on House Speaker job before key meeting
Kooky Palang Pracharat reports rejected on Tuesday by Prawit as Pheu Thai stands by Pita for PM
Move Forward’s ‘Government of Hope’ coalition delivers a programme promising a new charter
Jatuporn warns Pheu Thai may be turned as he predicts a political impasse. Should wait for 2024
