Constitutional Court to rule on Pita next week, sparking added anxiety about the political process. For conservatives in Thailand, however, the unthinkable may be about to happen as the financial markets anticipate an investment rally if Mr Pita Limjaroenrat is elected by a joint session of parliament on Thursday. However, there are still reports that only 20 members of the Senate or Upper house will support the bid and apprehension that the country could be plunged into a period of political uncertainty and turmoil.
After an appeal yesterday in the media to senators and MPs to support his candidacy for Prime Minister, the canvassing of senators and MPs continued on Wednesday with both the Move Forward and Pheu Thai party executives working to drum up support for Thursday’s crucial vote to elect the 30th Prime Minister of Thailand. At the same time, Move Forward officials and advisors to Pita Limjaroenrat are fighting a rearguard action to fight off a last-minute Constitutional Court intervention as the Election Commission filed a petition on Wednesday which will be heard next week. The poll agency has come under intense political pressure from the right with one conservative senator threatening to sue the body for not taking action on the issue of Mr Pita’s shares in a defunct media firm at an earlier stage. On Wednesday, a last-minute petition was filed with the court which ruled that it was too late to consider at its weekly meeting on the same day. This will now be reviewed next Wednesday adding another layer of uncertainty to the political situation as it is not certain how the court may rule or the extent of such a ruling even if it goes against Mr Pita.
As Move Forward party leader Pita Limjaroenrat took to social media to make a speech on Tuesday directed at MPs and Senators in Parliament, urging them to vote for him as the next Prime Minister and to respect the democratic will of the Thai people, financial markets were looking very carefully at the possible political scenario that may emerge on Thursday.
Analysts were particularly interested in examining the moves by right-wing elements to force the country’s Election Commission into a possible dramatic Constitutional Court intervention with the Commission meeting since Monday before finally making a last-minute move to petition the Constitutional Court, on Wednesday, after it had decided on Monday night not to refer the case of Mr Pita Limjaroenrat’s shares in a defunct media firm to the Court, at that time.
Election Commission finally decide on legal action over Mr Pita’s shares, a complaint over a defunct media firm that the party leader rejects
It is reported that these urgent discussions which continued into Wednesday, finally led to a resolution and a last-minute petition to the court.
On Monday, in response to the reports of such a move, the Secretary General of the Move Forward Party, Mr Chaitawat Tulathon, sent an urgent letter to the Commission, pointing out that it had not allowed Mr Pita to issue a clarification on such matters before reaching their conclusion.
The Move Forward Party leader has consistently claimed that the firm iTV is defunct, that the shareholding was part of his duty as an executor of his late father’s estate and that he had already renounced any interest in them.
Leading Thammasat University academic rubbishes the basis for such legal action against Mr Pita based on case law and Thailand’s existing civil code.
The key party official who is involved in negotiations with members of the Thai Senate warned that any such move to refer the matter to the court would be premature and also likely to fail as the complaint has no merit according to eminent legal scholars, among them Prinya Tewanarumitkul, the director of the jurisprudence centre at Thammasat University.
Alarming reports of a possible Constitutional Court intervention this week, a development reportedly already anticipated by Move Forward strategists
Alarming reports circulated on Monday, suggested that at a weekly meeting of the Constitutional Court on Wednesday, the matter could be taken up and could result in some intervention or ruling related to Mr Pita’s status under both Sections 98(3) and 101 (6) of the charter, the former which forbids any person standing for election being either the owner or shareholder of a newspaper or mass media business while Section 101(6) allows for the termination of a member of the House of Representatives or elected office on that basis if a court rules accordingly.
These reports have now been confirmed after two days of stalling.
Sources close to Mr Pita, on Tuesday, said that the Prime Minister-elect had been waiting for an opportunity to clarify all matters as he was quite certain that he had not breached the country’s strict electoral laws and constitutional provisions relating to the complaint being raised by political opponents since just days before the May 14th General Election as his party surged in opinion polls and subsequently stormed to victory securing 151 seats in the House of Representatives.
Plan is to rally parliament behind the people’s will to elect Pita Limjaroenrat as Prime Minister
It is also being reported in political circles that up to 20 senators are willing to support Mr Pita for the top job while 40 would support a Pheu Thai Party nominee.
Many MPs within the ranks of the outgoing coalition are expected to abstain on the vote after Mr Pita is nominated while this will also be the favoured option for many in the upper house.
Sources within the eight-party coalition are increasingly united behind the idea that Mr Pita should have the job even if it means repeated voting in parliament.
Late on Tuesday, Deputy Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul appeared optimistic that a new Prime Minister would be elected on Thursday.
Baht shows signs of recovery with an upside for financial markets if Pita is elected as PM on Thursday laying aside instability fears for now at least
The developments came as on Tuesday the Thai baht staged a rebound, rising by 0.8% to trade at ฿34.80 back to the US dollar, with reports from the United States that the Federal Reserve, although committed to further rate rises to combat inflation was of a mind to bring an end to its current campaign sometime this year.
Markets are awaiting US inflation data on Wednesday, which will have a significant impact on the matter.
‘There is a possibility that the pair (baht/dollar) can move forward on a downward trend in the near term, but that would be subject to a stable political outcome and favourable US CPI reading,’ an analyst with Maybank Securities in Bangkok noted on Tuesday referring to Thailand’s economy and this week’s key political developments.
The uncertainty that has come about as a result of the May 14th general election outcome has caused significant capital outflows from the country.
Many analysts are hoping that a peaceful transition to power after Thursday’s vote in Parliament will give Thai financial markets a boost, with Ms Nuttachart Mekmasin, a securities analyst at Trinity Securities, a Bangkok-based firm, this week predicted that such a positive and constructive outcome could see the set rallying again to 1600 points.
Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) has lost 7.1% and $1.1 billion has exited the country’s bond market over political instability fears since the election
Such a development would reflect a 7% gain on the market close on Monday after the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) witnessed a steep decline of 7.1% to 1,390 points in recent times.
At the same time, $1.1 billion has flown out of the kingdom’s bond market since the May 14th General Election.
There are also optimistic reports that the Chinese government may be ready to introduce a more supportive economic environment to underpin the country’s tanking economy.
‘China’s economic recovery could pick up amid more supportive policies imposed by the Chinese government, in turn impacting the market positively in the future,’ said Ms Tina Teng, an analyst at CMC Markets, an international financial services company specialising in foreign exchange on global markets based in London.
However, other analysts have noted that policy initiatives instigated by the Chinese Central Bank and economic authorities to support the country’s property and banking system at a local level have failed to stem a deteriorating trend.
The fear occupying minds in Bangkok is that if Thursday’s meeting of Parliament results in a political stalement or even more dramatic development, this will have a significant negative impact on the country’s economy already adversely impacted by political instability caused by the May 14th General Election outcome which has bred deep uncertainty.
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Further reading:
Plan is to rally parliament behind the people’s will to elect Pita Limjaroenrat as Prime Minister
Pheu Thai may face a terrible dilemma as outgoing government parties still aim for power in PM vote
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Baht falls to 7-month low as unease grows over chances of Pita Limjaroenrat being elected as PM
Pita’s election as PM and political certainty would be a green light for new jobs and investment
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Compromise mooted between Pheu Thai and Move Forward on House Speaker job before key meeting
Kooky Palang Pracharat reports rejected on Tuesday by Prawit as Pheu Thai stands by Pita for PM
Move Forward’s ‘Government of Hope’ coalition delivers a programme promising a new charter
Jatuporn warns Pheu Thai may be turned as he predicts a political impasse. Should wait for 2024
Election vote for Move Forward may have been a cry for help from voters mired in short-term debt
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Move Forward Party’s good election result leaves uncertainty as to who will form the government
