Thai PM Ung Ing meets Myanmar junta chief Min Aung Hlaing at China-led Kunming summit, prompting backlash in Thailand and Burma. China’s support signals a shift, as Thailand pivots to back China’s stance, impacting border stability, trade and refugee flows amid regional differences on how to handle Myanmar.
At a series of summits linked to the Mekong held in Kunming, in China’s southwestern province of Yunnan, Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra met with Myanmar’s pariah leader, General Min Aung Hlaing. Earlier, the Chinese Premier had met the leader of the military junta that overthrew Burma’s government in February 2021. Certainly, the meeting has drawn criticism from groups in both Thailand and Burma. It came as China appears to be propping up the failing regime, which has lost control over 86% of Burma’s townships and is on the back foot militarily. For Thailand, the meeting with Ms. Paetongtarn signals a reversal of direction from Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin, who had seemed to seek engagement with both sides in the conflict. Thailand now appears to be taking a less active role in favour of China. The Chinese leadership invited the isolated junta leader in October.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra on Wednesday held a meeting with Myanmar’s junta leader, Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. The tête-à-tête has drawn criticism in Thailand and from democratic groups in Burma.
The meeting took place during a regional summit in Kunming, China. Analysts see the meeting as part of an effort by China to prop up the failing regime. The junta in Burma has lost control of 86% of townships in the war-torn country.
The meeting occurred on the sidelines of the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) and Ayeyawady-Chao Phraya-Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS) summits.
Undoubtedly, it marked a significant diplomatic step for both leaders. Ms Paetongtarn is trying to assert her credentials on the diplomatic stage. At the same time, General Min Aung Hlaing is no longer an acceptable visitor outside China and its Mekong neighbours. Nevertheless, what happens in Myanmar still impacts Thailand.
Myanmar’s plummeting kyat and regional turmoil impact Thailand’s property and informal trade markets
For instance, a ban by the desperate regime in Nay Pyi Taw earlier this year cut off a key market for property developers in Bangkok selling condominiums. Many well-to-do Burmese nationals are already fleeing the collapsing country.
The impact on property development in Bangkok was substantial and immediate. The Burmese regime acted to help stem a plummeting kyat, the country’s currency. Presently, in Burma, most trade is being conducted in U.S. dollars in a black economy.
Prime Minister Paetongtarn shared a few details at a press briefing after the meeting. “We had a private conversation, and there was nothing unexpected,” she told reporters. She added that she conveyed “goodwill to cultivate peace and stability.”
Despite her peaceful overtures, Paetongtarn stressed that Thailand would not interfere in Myanmar’s internal matters. “Myanmar’s conflict is an internal affair that they must manage,” she stated, according to Thai media.
Myanmar has been embroiled in conflict since the military seized power in a 2021 coup, sparking fierce resistance from opposition groups and ethnic minority forces. These forces are loosely united under the National Unity Government (NUG), a pro-democracy coalition.
Thailand’s peace appeals for Myanmar ignored as junta avoids diplomatic initiatives by ASEAN
Although Thailand’s Prime Minister has called for peace and dialogue, Myanmar’s junta has largely ignored such overtures. Southeast Asian neighbours have previously been rebuffed in their peace efforts.
Certainly, the junta’s engagement with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has been fraught with difficulty. ASEAN has barred Min Aung Hlaing from recent summits.
The two countries share a 2,416-kilometre border, and the conflict often affects Thailand directly. Thousands of refugees from Myanmar have sought refuge in Thailand, primarily in camps in Tak and Mae Hong Son provinces.
Myanmar Junta meltdown threatens to end Bangkok’s condominium sales boom as Kyat currency fails
China closes border crossings with Burma after bomb attack on its consulate in Mandalay last week
The unrest has also disrupted border trade, affecting local economies on both sides. Paetongtarn, like other Thai prime ministers, emphasised Thailand’s commitment to peaceful relations with Myanmar.
“All Thai governments have never had conflicts with neighbouring countries,” she assured. During their meeting, the two leaders particularly discussed Myanmar’s migrant workers in Thailand. The Myanmar military raised concerns over unregistered workers, whose numbers are believed to be far higher than official estimates.
Thailand and Myanmar agree to focus on migrant and border issues amid escalating regional tensions
Paetongtarn directed Thailand’s Foreign Ministry to coordinate with Myanmar to gather accurate data on the migrant workforce. She highlighted that the two nations are committed to cooperating on cross-border issues, including drug trafficking, online crime and gambling.
The foreign ministers from both countries agreed to continue dialogue on these matters. During last month’s ASEAN summit in Laos, Paetongtarn urged more engagement with Myanmar.
She insisted that “a military solution alone” would not resolve Myanmar’s problems, thus emphasising dialogue. Ms. Paetongtarn, also known as Ung Ing, hinted at potential Thai support for Myanmar’s proposed election next year.
This will undoubtedly draw ire from democratic forces in Burma, as ASEAN has so far refrained from acknowledging this plan. Western nations are particularly sceptical of the proposed election.
Effectively, the junta no longer controls the country, nor does it have international recognition from the United Nations. The National Unity Government dismissed the elections as a sham—an attempt by the junta to secure its grip on power and claim legitimacy.
China’s engagement in Myanmar grows as the junta relies on Chinese support to maintain power
Certainly, opposition forces are either banned by the junta or refuse to participate while the country is at war.
The Kunming summit marked Min Aung Hlaing’s first visit to China since his controversial takeover in 2021.
The general’s meetings with Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Cambodian Prime Minister Hun Manet reflected China’s significant role. In brief, China has provided massive economic and military support to Myanmar’s illegal regime.
This visit was designed to portray China as a stabilising force while signalling its ongoing backing for Myanmar’s military junta.
Meanwhile, opposition forces on the ground are becoming increasingly hostile to China. They see China as a partner with the Tatmadaw in repressing democracy.
China certainly has tried previously to be more balanced. For instance, it has long supported the main opposition political party, the National League for Democracy. However, that party is now banned, and its figurehead, Nobel laureate Aung San Suu Kyi, is imprisoned by the generals.
China’s strong influence over Burma’s militias challenges efforts for Myanmar’s peace and stability
Similarly, China has a strong influence over key militia groups that control significant parts of Burma. In recent months, it has used this leverage to try to assist the retreating junta.
For instance, by delaying or frustrating military action by forces closer to the National Unity Government. Undoubtedly, the splintered and divided nation of Myanmar makes any prospect of peace or stability in the country difficult to see at this time.
This may explain Beijing’s move back to support the junta.
China recently closed its 12 border crossings with Myanmar, reportedly in response to a grenade attack on its consulate in Mandalay, linked to public hostility toward China’s increasingly significant role in Burma.
The closure has greatly affected trade, compounding Myanmar’s economic difficulties. The Myanmar junta, already struggling with a battered economy and dwindling control over various regions, now faces further challenges with disrupted trade routes.
Informal trade networks are under pressure as Myanmar deals with inflation and shortages.
In their talks in Kunming, Min Aung Hlaing reaffirmed his willingness to work with China on issues such as economic growth, energy and regional stability. Premier Li Qiang expressed China’s readiness to continue advancing infrastructure projects in Myanmar, including the Belt and Road Initiative.
As ASEAN struggles to address Myanmar’s crisis, China takes the lead in regional diplomatic efforts
While ASEAN has failed to address Myanmar’s ongoing crisis, China’s influence as a regional power and mediator is growing. ASEAN’s inability to bring Myanmar to the negotiating table has increased pressure on China to play a larger role.
For Thailand, maintaining stability along its border and ensuring economic cooperation with Myanmar remain top priorities, as Myanmar’s internal turmoil threatens broader regional stability.
Paetongtarn’s recent engagement reflects a pragmatic approach. Thailand is opting to position itself as a partner in peace rather than as an actor in Myanmar’s internal affairs.
The latter approach was hinted at and welcomed by progressive forces in Thailand under Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin. However, reports suggest that an effort by former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, to talk to rebel groups met with disappointment.
While Paetongtarn’s meeting with Min Aung Hlaing may signal a shift towards engaging the junta, she appeared cautious this week. Her government remains careful to balance support for peace with respect for Myanmar’s sovereignty.
Her message is clear: Thailand will assist in fostering stability, but it will not interfere in Myanmar’s internal politics. With regional tensions simmering, countries like Thailand and China may still hold keys to Myanmar’s future. However, sustainable peace remains a highly uncertain, indeed unlikely prospect.
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Further reading:
China closes border crossings with Burma after bomb attack on its consulate in Mandalay last week
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