A Harris presidence would herald a new era for America and the world. The first female president born after the baby boom promises a fresh, modern approach. Allies cheer for her victory, but how will she define her foreign policy in a shifting global landscape?
Certainly, international allies of the United States, including Thailand, would more than welcome victory for Vice President Kamala Harris in November’s U.S. election. Not only would the world witness America’s first female president, but also a younger leader who was born well after the baby boom era. A Harris presidency will undoubtedly be a more modern one, but it will also, despite her campaign’s best efforts at projecting her as a strong leader, represent a shift by America to the left.
Critics argue that Vice President Kamala Harris has yet to clearly define her foreign policy vision. However, some contours of her philosophy are beginning to emerge.
If Harris defeats Donald Trump in November, America’s allies may welcome her victory. “If she wins,” says an official from a long-standing Asian partner, “we will have a national holiday!” This reflects widespread concerns about the unpredictability of another Trump term.
Initial relief about a Harris administration would likely shift to inquiries about her worldview. Her supporters express confidence in her ability to bring fresh thinking to America’s global role. This includes her approach to artificial intelligence and outer space in defence.
Harris brings extensive experience from her time in office with heads of state and global leaders
Harris has extensive experience from her four years in office. She has met 150 heads of state. Additionally, she has addressed the Munich Security Conference three times. She has participated in key geopolitical calls with President Biden.
Despite her qualifications, Harris enters the Oval Office with one of the least articulated foreign policy visions of any incoming president in modern history.
She entered the race later than expected after Biden’s decision to step aside. This caution has limited her campaign speeches. As a result, few clues remain to analyze her thinking.
As Trump campaigns in a tight race, he aims to portray Harris as inexperienced in a turbulent world. However, her supporters point to her hawkish stance during her presidential nomination acceptance speech in August.
“I will ensure America always has the strongest, most lethal fighting force in the world,” she declared. This statement directly counters the Republican narrative that Democrats are weak on defence.
A pragmatic philosophy is emerging that reflects Harris’s worldview and approach to policy
Beneath her public rhetoric, a pragmatic philosophy is emerging. People familiar with her thinking describe Harris as a “realist” or “pragmatist.” However, she resists being pigeonholed and prefers to see herself as a prosecutor exploring different propositions.
Like Biden and Trump, she tends to be cautious about deploying troops. Harris will likely maintain America’s post-1945 role as the world’s policeman.
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To understand her foreign policy, one must consider how Trump’s victory in 2016 shifted American politics. It forced Democrats to tailor foreign policy to the concerns of ordinary citizens.
“Both parties used to say to voters, ‘You will eat the spinach of our trade deals,’” says Patrick Gaspard, president of the liberal Center for American Progress. “Harris would prioritise Main Street. This affects everything from climate to China. Unlike Trump, it would not be isolationist.”
Allies assert Harris will project force when needed while adhering to key foreign policy pillars
Harris’s allies assert that she would not shy away from projecting force when necessary. “You cannot protect America simply by shutting our doors and rolling up our tent,” says Senator Chris Murphy, a senior Democrat on the foreign relations committee.
Harris is expected to adhere to two pillars of Biden’s foreign policy. The first involves collaborating with allies to strengthen the liberal international order. The second involves maintaining pressure on Beijing through tariffs. However, allies suggest she would not seek to completely “decouple” from China’s economy.
A shift in tone and trajectory is anticipated. This will be influenced by Harris’s age, roots, and upbringing. At 59, Harris is the child of immigrants. Her mother hails from India and her father is from Jamaica. Growing up in California, she became the state’s attorney general.
“She is from a different generation and background than Biden,” says David Rothkopf, a foreign-policy analyst. “She is post-Cold War; she started working in 1990. If Biden’s economic origin story is the Rust Belt, hers is Silicon Valley.”
Generational differences could impact sensitive issues like the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
This generational shift could influence sensitive issues, including the Middle East. Since Israel’s establishment in 1948, unwavering support for it has been a cornerstone of American foreign policy. Biden has not deviated from this tradition. Some lawmakers view him as “the most Zionist president ever.”
However, his support has faced scrutiny. This is especially true in light of the civilian toll in Gaza. Harris has expressed concern over Palestinian suffering more clearly than Biden. This raises speculation that she might adopt a tougher stance on Israel as president.
Harris’s advisers clarify that she would defend Israel and its right to exist. After Iran’s missile attack on Israel, she condemned the assault. While it is unlikely she would withhold support like President George H.W. Bush, she might impose sanctions on far-right cabinet members if circumstances demand it.
Advisers suggest she may push for a renewed quest for a two-state solution after a potential ceasefire in Gaza. The Biden administration had previously sidelined this effort. However, recent events have reignited discussions about a durable peace.
Harris aims to address the Israeli-Palestinian conflict through a broader lens involving Arab states
Harris sees the Israeli-Palestinian conflict as part of a broader puzzle involving Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia. Lawmakers who have collaborated with her indicate she does not view it as a binary choice between pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian.
“Harris understands that the conflict has been costly for all parties,” says an aide. This includes tensions on American campuses and beyond. She aims to address the multifaceted nature of the conflict.
As Harris navigates the foreign policy landscape, she will be guided by the belief that the world is divided into rule-followers and rule-breakers. “She views the world through the lens of those who uphold international norms and those who undermine them,” says an aide.
As her campaign progresses, Harris will face numerous challenges. This is particularly true regarding the southern border. Biden’s delegation of border negotiations to her has often been seen as a poisoned chalice. Trump frequently derides her as a failed “border tsar.”
Despite this, Venezuela remains a priority. The country is facing a humanitarian crisis and political turmoil. The recent disputed elections threaten to exacerbate the migrant surge toward the U.S. “Venezuela will require enormous attention,” says a close ally.
Kamala Harris will face challenges as she navigates the path of a new, dangerous multipolar world
If Harris wins, she will lead during a time of significant change. She must navigate America’s path into a new multipolar world. The strategic selection of her senior appointments will be crucial. National security experts suggest she might choose seasoned figures as her advisers.
Every administration encounters unexpected events that shape its course. Harris’s allies believe she will embrace opportunities presented by technology. This includes potential increases in defence spending focused on artificial intelligence and space capabilities.
Ultimately, the success of her foreign policy will depend on her ability to respond to global events. In a world rife with challenges, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East will soon test her leadership.
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