Pheu Thai wins Phitsanulok by-election as People’s Party faces another defeat. Public anxiety rises over government stability, as a new poll shows widespread concerns about Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s leadership and Thaksin’s influence amid fears of protests and unrest.
The Phitsanulok by-election on Saturday saw the Pheu Thai Party emerge victorious. Certainly, it was another loss for the People’s Party, which failed to recover a seat lost after the Move Forward Party was dissolved by the Constitutional Court in August. The unofficial result has yet to be confirmed by the Election Commission. Whatever good news Pheu Thai leader Paetongtarn Shinawatra may have received from the election outcome may be overshadowed by a national opinion poll result published on Sunday. In short, it reflects deep concerns that the public holds over the stability of the government given the political environment and the present constitution.
On Sunday evening, it became clear that the newly formed People’s Party had suffered another electoral defeat. This follows its earlier defeat on September 1st in the Ratchaburi Provincial Administration Chairman race.
In that election, despite considerable effort, the party lost to the incumbent, Mr. Wiwat Nitikanchana, who is loosely aligned with the conservative Palang Pracharat Party.
The People’s Party put forward Chairath Sakissarapong as a challenger, but he lost with 242,927 votes to 175,353. Certainly, it was an ambitious attempt for the new party. However, the poll this weekend was in Phitsanulok, in northern Thailand.
People’s Party successor contested by-election. Provisional results indicate a decisive Pheu Thai victory
The People’s Party, successor to the Move Forward Party, was contesting a by-election for a seat it lost after the party’s dissolution. By Sunday, with all votes counted, the provisional results showed a decisive Pheu Thai Party victory.
The party’s candidate, Mr. Jadet Chanthra, polled 37,209 votes across 208 polling stations, while the People’s Party’s Mr. Natthanon Chanaburasak secured 30,640. The eligible voter number was 138,705.
People’s Party on campaign but on guard against potential legal complaints to oversight agencies
Paetongtarn’s heart signal already lands the government in hot water. Unstable coalition appears doomed
This election comes as the Pheu Thai government, led by Paetongtarn Shinawatra, is increasingly linked to her father, Thaksin Shinawatra. In August, Thaksin blamed the party’s poor showing in the 2023 elections on his daughter withdrawing from campaigning weeks before the poll. She later gave birth to a baby boy.
This week, as prime minister, Ms. Paetongtarn received praise for her decisive handling of the Mekong River flooding crisis. Additionally, on Sunday, she announced she would not be accepting her salary as Prime Minister. Of course, this was following in the footsteps of her predecessor, Srettha Thavisin.
People’s Party faced another electoral defeat amidst revived Pheu Thai fortunes and growing challenges
Nonetheless, while Pheu Thai may be considering a revival of its fortunes, the last two results show that the People’s Party still has significant work to do. It cannot expect to easily sweep to power in constituency strongholds of its rival parties in the 2027 election.
At the same time, there was concerning news for Ms. Paetongtarn on Sunday. A National Institute of Development Administration (NIDA) poll reflected public anxiety over the viability of her government. In truth, a palpable fear that it may be overthrown by political enemies, street protests, or even a coup d’état.
Firstly, the poll revealed that the government has a confidence problem. A reported 57.94% of respondents said they had either no confidence or low confidence in the cabinet. This compared to 41.30% who had moderate or high confidence. Specifically, 22.52% had no confidence at all, while 35.42% had low confidence.
The detailed results were:
35.42% stated they had little confidence.
28.17% expressed moderate confidence.
22.52% reported having no confidence whatsoever.
13.13% indicated strong confidence.
0.76% were unsure or uninterested.
The survey also showed that Thai voters were concerned that Ms. Paetongtarn was overshadowed by her father, Thaksin Shinawatra.
Public concern grows over Thaksin’s influence. Constitutional court powers and potential instability
While the public and financial markets still have confidence in Thaksin, there is fear that his presence or association with the government will sow division and resentment. In short, 32.14% feared that this would spark lawsuits, with one already lodged with the Election Commission.
Certainly, there are deep concerns about constitutional provisions that allow such complaints willy-nilly.
In short, the powers vested in the Constitutional Court to dissolve political parties are thought by many to be too powerful. Undoubtedly, these powers allow for the will of the people, expressed in elections, to be set aside immediately—for instance, when a popular party is dissolved. In particular, that means the Prime Ministerial nominees of that party are automatically barred.
At this time, there is a fear the Pheu Thai Party is in danger of such a fate. In effect, history may be repeating itself.
Fears over government competence, potential protests, and political instability dominate public concern
Furthermore, 36.03% were concerned that the government would not deliver on its promises. Additionally, 32.14% are worried about the young prime minister’s lack of experience.
Other concerns included the potential for widespread corruption (24.89%) and a crisis sparked by Ms. Paetongtarn’s inexperience (21.76%). Certainly, there is fear that the government will soon be confronted with street protests, similar to those in 2014 when Ms. Paetongtarn’s aunt, Yingluck Shinawatra, held the post. About 21.53% of respondents were worried about this.
Only 18.63% of respondents had no concerns, while 14.73% feared another coup d’état in Thailand. Additionally, 11.83% feared that coalition parties would try to oust the government, and 10.08% worried about a political crisis similar to the one that led to the downfall of Srettha Thavisin’s government.
Public’s top concerns: government failures, Thaksin’s influence, protests, corruption, and political instability
Undoubtedly, the influence and power of Palang Pracharat Party leader Prawit Wongsuwan are also at play here. The former deputy prime minister has emerged as a dangerous opponent since his public ousting from the government at the end of August.
In brief, the opinion poll highlighted the following concerns:
36.03% were most concerned that the government might fail to meet political promises or underperform expectations.
32.14% worried about Ms. Paetongtarn’s young age and limited political experience, fearing it could lead to poor decision-making.
32.14% expressed concerns that her father, Thaksin Shinawatra, could hold excessive influence, potentially causing lawsuits against the prime minister and coalition parties.
24.89% feared corruption due to weak administration.
21.76% were anxious about the mismanagement of national affairs leading to crises.
21.53% worried about political instability caused by protests against Ms. Paetongtarn’s government.
18.85% feared attempts by Thaksin’s opponents to overthrow the government.
18.63% expressed no concerns about the current administration.
14.73% were worried about the possibility of another coup d’état.
11.83% feared that coalition parties might attempt to unseat the prime minister.
10.08% worried about the government’s downfall due to opposition checks and balances.
0.46% were unsure or uninterested.
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Further reading:
Paetongtarn’s heart signal already lands government in hot water. Unstable coalition appears doomed
PM vote in disarray as Pheu Thai MPs vote to support Paetongtarn or Ung Ing for the job instead
‘I am a man of integrity.’ Dismissed PM defends his honour as he is forced out of Government House
Ex-Senator gives PM Srettha 50:50 odds on surviving this Wednesday. Not impressed with his defence
